Oil Prices May Rise to $150 if US Goes Ahead With Hormuz Blockade

Global oil markets are on edge after reports that crude prices could surge to $140–$150 per barrel if the United States proceeds with its planned naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes.

Oil markets are under pressure as fears of a Hormuz blockade push crude prices above $103 with experts warning of a possible $150 spike.

According to the latest NDTV Profit report, Brent crude has already surged above $103 per barrel, following failed weekend talks between Washington and Tehran, intensifying fears of a major supply disruption.

Why Oil Could Spike to $150

Veteran oil market executive Jorge Montepeque, Managing Director at Onyx Capital Group, warned that current prices do not yet reflect the full risk.

He said oil should be trading closer to $140–$150 per barrel if the US fully implements the blockade.

The biggest concern is the possible loss of up to 12 million barrels per day from global supply if shipping through the Strait is severely disrupted.

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, making it one of the most strategically important energy corridors in the world.

Why This Matters for Global Markets

A move to $150 oil would have major consequences across the global economy.

It could trigger:

• higher petrol and diesel prices

• rising inflation

• increased transport costs

• higher airline fuel expenses

• pressure on stock markets

• possible recession fears

Countries heavily dependent on crude imports, including India, China, and other Asian economies, may face the biggest impact.

For India, higher oil prices directly affect:

• fuel prices

• logistics costs

• food inflation

• fiscal deficit concerns

  
  

Market Reaction So Far

Oil prices have already reacted sharply.

• Brent crude: above $103

• WTI crude: above $100

• physical European crude: near $149

Some physical oil cargoes in Europe have already traded close to $150 per barrel, even before any full-scale supply shutdown.

This suggests traders are already pricing in severe supply risk.

What Investors Should Watch

Markets will closely monitor:

• US military action

• Iran’s response

• tanker movement through Hormuz

• OPEC production response

• India fuel price policy

Any further escalation could keep oil highly volatile in the coming days.